[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 30 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/-- 1748UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was high, with
an X1 flare from region 2017 (N11W32) at 29/1748UT. This region
also produced an M2 flare at 28/2351 and several C-class flares.
Regions 2010, 2023 and 2024 also produced C-class flares. Several
CMEs were observed on 29-Mar, though none appears to be Earth-directed
based on available imagery. The CME from 28/1652 could give Earth
a glancing blow on 1-Apr. Moderate to high activity is likely
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed varied between 370-490km/s
and the IMF Bz component between +/-6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22121003
Cocos Island 2 21111001
Darwin 3 21110003
Townsville 4 22111003
Learmonth 4 22111003
Alice Springs 3 21110003
Norfolk Island 4 23010002
Culgoora 4 21121003
Gingin 3 21021002
Camden 5 22121003
Canberra 3 22020002
Launceston 5 22121003
Hobart 3 22120002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 11020001
Casey 9 33331003
Mawson 15 55221002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 0002 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 5 Quiet
31 Mar 5 Quiet
01 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 hours
over the Australian region, with unsettled to minor storm conditions
in Antarctica in the first half of the UT day. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the Australian region for 30-31 Mar, with unsettled
to active conditions possible on 1-Apr if a CME from 28-Mar arrives.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 29
March and is current for 30 Mar to 1 Apr. HF conditions were
mostly normal in the Australian region over the last 24 hours,
with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 90100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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