[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 28 10:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
two C-class flares from region 2010 (S15W68), the larger being
a C4.8. Low activity is expected for the next 3 days, with a
chance of M-class flares. The solar wind speed varied in the
range 350-450km/s. The IMF Bz component varied mostly between
+/-5nT, mostly negative from 03-17UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Cocos Island 2 11121000
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 5 22122111
Learmonth 4 22222100
Alice Springs 4 22121101
Norfolk Island 3 11122011
Culgoora 3 111----1
Gingin 5 21222210
Camden 4 11122111
Canberra 3 11122010
Launceston 6 12232111
Hobart 5 11232110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 00133100
Casey 9 33412110
Mawson 9 22223331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3031 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 5 Quiet
29 Mar 5 Quiet
30 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet over the Australian
region during the last 24 hours, with some unsettled periods
at higher latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region
over the last 24 hours, with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 75900 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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