[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 14 issued 2334 UT on 16 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 17 10:34:07 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Low with the
small chance of M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds declined
slowly during 16 March and are presently around 300 km/s. Solar
wind speeds are expected to mostly remain around these values
for 17-18 March then increase again during 19 March. A CME associated
with a disappearing solar filament (DSF) was observed in SOHO
and STEREO satellite imagery during 16 March. This event appears
unlikely to be geoeffective, however, further analysis is required.
Other CME activity observed during 16 March is not expected to
be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 2 11100002
Learmonth 1 20100001
Alice Springs 1 10100001
Norfolk Island 0 00000000
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 0 10100000
Camden 0 10100000
Canberra 0 00100000
Launceston 1 11100000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 5 23320000
Mawson 2 22111000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 3 2110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 5 Quiet
18 Mar 4 Quiet
19 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels are expected for 17-18 March. Unsettled
levels may be observed during 19 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted
monthly values for the next few days with the small chance of
SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
16 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 80000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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