[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Mar 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 18 10:30:23 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over 
the last 24 hours. Six C-class flares have been observed today, 
the largest being a C2 flare (0045UT) from region 2002(S18W58). 
Solar wind speed gradually declined from 320 km/s to 300 km/s 
and the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +/-4nT during 
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels 
with a small chance of M-class activity for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10000101
      Cocos Island         1   11000101
      Darwin               1   11010101
      Townsville           2   11110101
      Learmonth            1   10000101
      Alice Springs        1   10000102
      Norfolk Island       0   00000010
      Culgoora             1   00010111
      Gingin               1   10000102
      Camden               1   10000011
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Launceston           1   10110011
      Hobart               0   00100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   12310101
      Mawson               9   31100125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              2   0110 0110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar     4    Quiet
19 Mar     4    Quiet
20 Mar     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 17 March. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs remained enhanced in most locations on 17 March. 
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next few 
days with the small chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Mar   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for 
17 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly 
values for the next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    38900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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