[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 16 10:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Low with the
small chance of M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds declined
slowly during 15 March and are expected to mostly remain below
450 km/s for the next few days. CME activity observed during
15 March is not expected to be geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 3 21110012
Learmonth 2 21110001
Alice Springs 2 21100001
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 2 21110011
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 11100001
Launceston 2 21110001
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 9 23431021
Mawson 13 42221044
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1221 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar 6 Quiet
18 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected over the
next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted
monthly values for the next few days with the small chance of
SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
15 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list