[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 15 10:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: A number of solar regions have shown minor activity
during 14 March. Mostly Low to moderate activity is expected
for 15 March with small chance of X-class flares. CME activity
observed during 14 March is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speeds declined during 14 March down to approximately
400 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated
during the next couple of days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22112101
Cocos Island 2 21101100
Darwin 3 22111101
Townsville 4 22212101
Learmonth 5 32112201
Alice Springs 3 22111101
Norfolk Island 3 12112011
Culgoora 4 22112111
Gingin 5 22212201
Camden 4 22112111
Canberra 3 12112001
Launceston 6 22222112
Hobart 5 22222101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 11123100
Casey 13 44422111
Mawson 15 32423324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 4332 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 6 Quiet
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected over the
next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted
monthly values for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
14 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days. There is the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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