[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 14 issued 2334 UT on 13 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 14 10:34:04 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1919UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels during 13 March
due to an isolated M1.2 flare from region 1996 towards the west
limb. Solar activity is expected to be mostly Low to Moderate
for 14 March with the small chance of X-class flares. LASCO and
STEREO satellite imagery was patchy around the times of 2 disappearing
solar filaments (DSFs) so analysis of any associated CME activity
is difficult at this time, however, due to the locations geoeffective
CMEs are unlikely. No other geoeffective CME activity was observed
during 13 March. Solar wind speeds increased towards 500 km/s
towards the end of the UT day of 13 March. Solar wind speeds
are expected to remain mildly elevated for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
with an isolated Minor storm period at high latitudes at the
start of the UT day
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 32311111
Cocos Island 4 22211110
Darwin 5 32211111
Townsville 8 33312112
Learmonth 7 42211112
Alice Springs 6 32311111
Norfolk Island 6 32211121
Culgoora 7 32312111
Gingin 8 42211122
Camden 7 32312111
Canberra 6 32212111
Launceston 7 32322111
Hobart 6 32311111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 22233200
Casey 11 34422111
Mawson 16 54323311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1000 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Mar 6 Quiet
16 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased slightly early in the
UT day of 13 March in response to a sustained period of southward
IMF, with some active levels across the Australian region and
an isolated Minor Storm period at high latitudes. The remainder
of the UT day was predominantly Quiet. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
levels are expected for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted
monthly values for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 12
March and is current for 13-14 Mar. Observed MUFs were above
predicted monthly values for 13 March and are expected to continue
above predicted monthly values for the next few days. There is
the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 17500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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