[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 7 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
one C-class x-ray activity less than C2. Background x-ray flux
has decreased further and is now at B levels. There is currently
9 numbered regions on disk of which AR1996(N14E06)(Beta/Csi)
showed strong growth overnight. Most regions are stable or decaying,
and have a simple magnetic configuration. Solar activity is expected
to be Low for the next 24 hours with only a slight chance of
M-class events while the 10cm flux levels are expected to decrease.
Two CMEs were observed during the previous 24 hours. These events
were not Earthward directed but are indicative of the activity
which may soon rotate into view. Solar wind speeds steady increased
and are presently ~ 450km/s and the Bz component between +/-4
nT but mainly northwards. A narrow coronal hole in the northern
hemisphere should inhance the solar wind speeds staring late
on 08 March onwards.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet with one
isolated Unsettled period.
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 11213121
Cocos Island 4 11102230
Darwin 5 11113121
Townsville 5 11213121
Learmonth 6 21113122
Alice Springs 5 10213121
Norfolk Island 3 11102021
Culgoora 4 11212121
Gingin 7 20213231
Camden 5 11213121
Canberra 5 10213121
Launceston 6 11313121
Hobart 5 11213121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 00103111
Casey 17 34523132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1012 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 7 Quiet
08 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with a
brief Unsettled period around 1500UT. Conditions are expected
to remain mostly Quiet over the next 24 hours. Elevated solar
wind speed from a coronal hole could take effect late on 8 March
to create Unsettled to Active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed during local day and
night. There was a further decrease in MUFs values today, 06
March, however MUFs are expected to remain near predicted or
slightly higher for the next 24 hours. Elevated solar wind speed
from a coronal hole may take effect late on 8 Mar and create
moderately variable MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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