[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 14 issued 2333 UT on 05 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 6 10:33:43 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0210UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 05 March,
due to an M1-class flare from active region 1991(S24W25) at 0210UT.
low level C-class events were also observed during the UT day.
AR 1991 has declined though may still produce flares. AR1990(S13
W39) was inactive and is now only ~190 millionths of the solar
disc. Background x-ray flux has decreased over the period. The
overall potential for M flares across all the active regions
on the disc is high. Several CMEs were observed in available
LASCO/STEREO images including a partial halo CME first observed
in LASCO/C2 images ~0924UT, none are considered Earth directed.
Solar wind speeds has gradually increased between 400-450m/s
over the UT day and Bz ranged between +/-5nT with no sustained
southward periods. Light solar wind speeds are expected for the
the next 2 days. A narrow coronal hole in the northern hemisphere
should inhance the solar wind speeds staring late on day 3,08
March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21212122
Cocos Island 4 22101121
Darwin 5 21212112
Townsville 5 21212122
Learmonth 7 21213222
Alice Springs 5 21212112
Norfolk Island 3 10111121
Culgoora 4 11212111
Gingin 5 21212122
Camden 5 -1212212
Canberra 4 11212211
Launceston 7 22222222
Hobart 6 31222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 10123211
Casey 19 45433222
Davis 12 3332323-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2202 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 7 Quiet
07 Mar 7 Quiet
08 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Mostly at Quiet levels during
the UT day, 05 March with isolated cases of Unsettled and Active
levels in the polar regions.6-7 March should be mostly Quiet
in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or fast CME activity.
Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole could take effect
late on 8 March to create Unsettled to Active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 24 hours. Short-wave fadeouts(SWFs) are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: There was a slight lowering in MUFs values today, 05
March, however MUFs are expected to remain near predicted or
slightly higher for 6-7 March. Elevated solar wind speed from
a coronal hole may take effect late on 8 Mar and create moderately
variable MUFs. Numerous active regions appear to hold further
potential for M class flares and short-wave fadeouts(SWFs should
be expected over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 94800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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