[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 8 10:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
one C2 flare at 1857UT from region 1995(S16W76). Background x-ray
flux remains at B levels during 7 March. There are presently
9 numbered regions on the disk with most regions are either stable
or decaying with a simple magnetic configuration. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Low levels for the next 24 hours while
the 10cm flux levels are expected to decrease. SOHO LASCO C2
imagery showed a CME at ~1224 UT, based on STEREO imagery not
expected to be geo-effective. During the previous 24 hours, the
solar wind speed decreased from approximately 470 to 400 km/s
and Bz fluctuated between -2 nT and +4 nT. Although solar conditions
are quiet at present, solar wind parameters are likely to be
affected by the onset of a coronal hole high speed during the
next 12-24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Cocos Island 1 11011000
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 2 21111010
Alice Springs 1 11101000
Norfolk Island 1 11000011
Culgoora 1 11101001
Gingin 1 10101000
Camden 2 11101011
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 4 12211111
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 14 35431011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1000 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. The
expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream in
the next 12-24 hours is expected to cause Unsettled conditions
with a good chance of isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were generally above predicted monthly
values. Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole may take
effect late today,08 March. There may be a slight lowering in
MUFs values, however MUFs are expected to remain near predicted
or slightly higher over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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