[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 11 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.2 1142UT probable all European
X1.5 1252UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, with
two X-flares from region 2087 (S15) on the east limb. These were
an X2.2 event at 10/1142UT and an X1.5 at 10/1252UT. A CME was
associated with each of these flares, the second being larger
and faster than the first. Most of the mass was ejected to the
east, but there is a possibility Earth could receive a glancing
blow from the faster CME on 13-Jun. Solar activity is expected
to be moderate to high over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
has increased from ~400km/s to ~450km/s. The IMF Bz component
varied between -6/+8nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11212211
Cocos Island 3 01122210
Darwin 5 11222212
Townsville 5 11222212
Learmonth 5 12222211
Alice Springs 5 11222202
Norfolk Island 3 01112210
Culgoora 3 01112201
Gingin 4 11211211
Camden 4 11112202
Canberra 3 01112201
Launceston 3 01212201
Hobart 2 011-----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00101000
Casey 7 13322111
Mawson 16 32333225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2222 1231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 5 Quiet
12 Jun 6 Quiet
13 Jun 15 Active periods at high latitudes
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to minor storm levels
were observed in Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected for
the Australian region for 11-12 Jun, with active periods possible
at high latitudes on 13-Jun if the 10-Jun CME arrives.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 10
June and is current for 11-13 Jun. Nighttime MUF depressions
were observed in the Niue Island region and in Northern Australia.
Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are
expected to be near to predicted monthly values over the next
3 days, with some mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 36300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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