[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 12 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0534UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.0 0809UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X1.0 0906UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M3.9 2103UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours. Region
2087 (S18E56) produced the largest event, an X1.0 flare at 10/0906UT.
The same region also produced two M-class flares and several
C-class flares. Regions 2080, 2082 and 2089 were also active.
Three spot groups showed signs of growth. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed. Solar activity is expected to remain moderate
to high for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed rose gradually
to around ~650km/s most likely to due to an equatorial coronal
hole and has since declined to ~530km/s. The IMF Bz component
varied between +/-5nT at the start of the UT day, but has been
mostly neutral for the last 6 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22121111
Cocos Island 3 12121100
Darwin 4 22211111
Townsville 5 22221111
Learmonth 5 22221210
Alice Springs 4 11220211
Norfolk Island 4 12121111
Culgoora 3 12120111
Gingin 6 22121320
Camden 4 22120111
Canberra 2 11120110
Launceston 6 22131211
Hobart 4 21121111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 10031100
Casey 16 32221621
Mawson 20 24342353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2122 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 6 Quiet
13 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to storm level periods
were observed in Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected for
the Australian region for 12 Jun, with active periods possible
at high latitudes on 13-14 Jun if the 10-Jun CME arrives.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 10
June and is current for 11-13 Jun. Nighttime MUF depressions
were observed in the Niue Island region and in Northern Australia.
Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are
expected to be near to predicted monthly values over the next
3 days, with some mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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