[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 10 09:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. C-class
flares were observed from regions 2080 (S11W15) and 2085 (S19W12),
with the latter producing a C9 event at 09/1229UT. Both these
regions showed signs of growth. A CME with an associated type
II radio sweep was observed from the east limb, but is not Earth-directed.
Low to moderate activity is expected for the next 3 days, with
M-class events possible from new regions rotating onto the disc.
Region 2065 (S19) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due
to return around 9 Jun. The solar wind speed declined gradually
from ~600km/s to ~400km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral,
with a negative bias. The solar wind speed is expected to show
a moderate increase over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12220110
Cocos Island 3 12220010
Darwin 3 12210011
Townsville 3 12220011
Learmonth 4 12220121
Alice Springs 2 11210011
Norfolk Island 2 01220010
Culgoora 3 11220110
Gingin 4 12220120
Camden 4 1222-110
Canberra 1 01120000
Launceston 4 12230110
Hobart 4 12230110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 01140100
Casey 5 12320120
Mawson 23 22532263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 37 4665 5432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 4 Quiet
11 Jun 5 Quiet
12 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed over the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with a brief unsettled period
at high latitudes between 9-12UT. Brief storm level periods were
observed in Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected for the
Australian region for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is a slight chance of short-wave fadeouts due
to the possibility of increased solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in the Niue Island region,
and also overnight in Northern Australia. Otherwise, MUFs were
near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near to
predicted monthly values over the next 3 days, with some mild
depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.7E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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