[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 14 issued 2343 UT on 29 Jul 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 30 09:43:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
region 2130 (S07E72) being the source of the largest event with
a C4.6 flare at 1633UT. Region 2130 and 2126 (S10W26) also produced
numerous C1 flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. There
are currently 10 numbered regions on the visible disk with no
observed change in magnetic complexity or size over the last
24 hours. The solar wind declined from 415km/s at 00UT to be
~~315km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bz component ranged
between +/-3nT for most of the UT day. Solar activity for the
next 3 days is expected to be Low, with a chance of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 3 12100112
Learmonth 1 11100110
Alice Springs 1 11000101
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 1 11000111
Gingin 1 11100110
Camden 2 12000011
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 2 11100112
Hobart 1 11000110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 12200111
Mawson 8 12520010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 2331 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 4 Quiet
31 Jul 4 Quiet
01 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Equatorial, Northern AUS
and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Normal to
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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