[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 14 issued 2349 UT on 28 Jul 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 29 09:49:32 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
region 2125 (S12E47) being the source of the largest two flares
with a C1.2 at 1145UT and a C2.4 at 1410UT. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed climbed from 310km/s
at 03UT to be ~420km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bz
component ranged between +/-5 for most of the UT day with notable
sustained southward periods of approx -8nT between 03-07UT. Solar
activity for the next 3 days is expected to be Low, with a chance
of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22212311
Cocos Island 5 22311210
Darwin 6 22211312
Townsville 9 23322311
Learmonth 9 23322311
Alice Springs 7 22212312
Norfolk Island 5 22211211
Culgoora 6 22212311
Gingin 7 12222321
Camden 6 22212311
Canberra 5 12211311
Launceston 8 23222311
Hobart 6 12222311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 01232410
Casey 9 23322222
Mawson 19 343-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 4 Quiet
30 Jul 4 Quiet
31 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Jul 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
31 Jul 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 26 July
and is current for 27-29 Jul. Variable HF conditions observed
for Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs were depressed
over Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and normal to disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 57400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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