[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 28 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C2 and C1 flares from, respectively, regions 2125 (S12E71) and
2127 (S07E79). Region 2126 (S09E03) increased in area. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Activity for the next 3 days is expected
to be low, with a chance of M-class events. The solar wind varied
between around 320-390 km/s and the IMF Bz component between
-5 to +6 nT, mostly negative for the 5 hours from 01 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11210002
Townsville 2 11200012
Learmonth 1 11200000
Alice Springs 2 11200001
Norfolk Island 2 21100001
Culgoora 2 21100001
Gingin 1 11110000
Camden 2 21100001
Canberra 2 21100001
Launceston 2 21210001
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 5 32311010
Mawson 7 33311110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2222 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 5 Quiet
29 Jul 5 Quiet
30 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, unsettled conditions were observed
in Antarctica until around 09 UT. Conditions are expected to
be mostly quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 26 July
and is current for 27-29 Jul. MUFs were depressed over much of
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions
are likely for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 77600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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