[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 27 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C1 flares from regions 2123 (S08E22) and 2125 (S11E85). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Activity for the next 3 days is expected
to be low, with a chance of M-class events. The solar wind varied
between around 320-420 km/s and the IMF Bz component between
+/-7 nT, with a 6-hour negative period after 03 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Cocos Island 2 11211100
Darwin 4 21221111
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 4 12221111
Alice Springs 4 11221111
Norfolk Island 2 11211010
Culgoora 4 12221111
Gingin 4 11221111
Camden 4 12221111
Canberra 3 11221110
Launceston 5 12231111
Hobart 4 11231110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 01331110
Casey 6 22222221
Mawson 17 34332441
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 3121 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 6 Quiet
28 Jul 6 Quiet
29 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with brief periods of active to
minor storm levels observed in Antarctica. Conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Jul 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Jul 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 26 July
and is current for 27-29 Jul. MUFs were depressed over much of
the Australian region over the last 24 hours, more so in the
north. An ionospheric scintillation event was detected at Niue
Island at 26/1618 UT. Mildly depressed MUFs are likely for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 52600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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