[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 14 issued 2348 UT on 30 Jul 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 31 09:48:40 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2127 (S08E36) being the source of the largest event with a C9.0
flare at 1617UT. Region 2127 along with regions 2130 (S07E57)
and 2125 (S13E18) each produced smaller C-class events. A long
NE quadrant filament erupted between 0430UT-0530UT (as seen on
the Learmonth H-alpha imagery) with an associated northerly directed
partial halo CME that may provide a glancing blow on 02Aug. There
are currently 7 numbered regions on the visible disk with no
observed change in magnetic complexity or increase in size over
the last 24 hours. The solar wind gradually declined from 340km/s
at 00UT to be ~300km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain <400km/s for the next 24hrs. The
IMF Bz component ranged between +5 and -3nT over the UT day.
Solar activity for the next 3 days is expected to be Low, with
a chance of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 3 22100002
Learmonth 1 21000000
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 0 11000000
Camden 2 21100001
Canberra 1 11000001
Launceston 1 12010000
Hobart 1 11010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22201000
Mawson 8 43301002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1100 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 4 Quiet
01 Aug 4 Quiet
02 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible isolated
Active periods on 02Aug from a glancing blow CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 29 July
and is current for 30-31 Jul. Depressed MUFs observed for Equatorial,
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours,
mostly during local day. Normal to disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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