[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 20 09:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels during the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 330 
km/s to around 280 km/s and the Bz component of IMF stayed close 
to normal value during most parts of the UT day today. No significant 
variation to solar activity is expected in the next three days. 
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected on 20, 21 and 
22 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00010000
      Cocos Island         0   10000000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           1   11010001
      Learmonth            0   00000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Norfolk Island       0   --000000
      Culgoora             1   11110000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Camden               0   01010000
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Launceston           0   00010000
      Hobart               0   00010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                1   11110000
      Mawson               4   30111012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2010 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul     5    Quiet
21 Jul     6    Quiet
22 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 20, 21 and 22 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed for most of the day, more 
pronounced at low latitudes. This is due to the continued lack 
of ionising EUV and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar 
disc. This is likely to continue for the next few days. Minor 
to mild MUF depressions may be observed on 20, 21 and 22 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jul    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
21 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
22 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed throughout the entire 
Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced at low 
latitudes. This is due to the continued lack of ionising EUV 
and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc. This is 
likely to continue for the next few days. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be observed on 20, 21 and 22 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    40700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list