[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 19 09:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels during the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and 340 km/s 
and the Bz component of IMF stayed close to normal value. No 
significant variation to solar activity is expected in the next 
three days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected 
on 19, 20 and 21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           1   01000002
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11110001
      Gingin               0   10100000
      Camden               1   21100000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11010000
      Hobart               0   10010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                3   22210000
      Mawson               3   21110003

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1210 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul     5    Quiet
20 Jul     5    Quiet
21 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 19, 20 and 21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed for most of the day, more 
pronounced at low latitudes. This is again due to the lack of 
ionising EUV and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar 
disc. This is likely to continue for the next few days. Minor 
to mild MUF depressions may be observed on 19, 20 and 21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
20 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
21 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed throughout the entire 
Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced at low 
latitudes. This is again due to the lack of ionising EUV and 
X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc. This is likely 
to continue for the next few days. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be observed on 19, 20 and 21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.9E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    92700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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