[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 18 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low during 17 July with
only a single B-class x-ray flare and background flux below B1
level. Only one small diffuse spot group AR2113 is on the disc,
and about to rotate off the limb. There are three numbered plage
regions ARs 2114, 2116 and 2117 without spots but all are small.
A disappearing filament was observed in the northwest quadrant
in a potentially geoeffective position if a coronal mass ejection
resulted but none has been observed yet in the SOHO spacecraft
data. Conditions are likely to remain Very Low to Low for the
next two days. Solar wind speed declined again over the UT day
from a moderate 450km/s down to a low 360km/s. A small equatorial
coronal hole is in a geoeffective position so a brief rise on
solar wind speed may occur on the 18th or 19th. Interplanetary
magnetic field north-south (IMF Bz) was in the neutral +/-5nT
range, not conducive to strong merging with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 12200011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 2 11200021
Alice Springs 1 01100011
Norfolk Island 1 11100000
Culgoora 1 01100011
Gingin 2 11200120
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 1 01100010
Launceston 1 01100011
Hobart 1 01100010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 23310122
Mawson 15 33211245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2221 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 14 July, as
solar wind speed was low to moderate and the interplanetary magnetic
field north-south (IMF Bz) was in the neutral +/-5nT range, so
merging with the geomagnetic field was weak. There are no major
spot groups on the solar disc so coronal mass ejections are not
expected in the next 2-3 days. An disappearing filament was observed
in north-west solar quadrant, geoeffective if a coronal mass
ejection was emitted, but none has been observed yet. A small
equatorial coronal hole is rotating through the geoeffective
longitudes, so a modest increase in solar wind speed and geomagnetic
activity may occur across the 18th or 19th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed throughout the entire
Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced at low
latitudes. This is again due to the lack of ionising EUV and
X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc. This is likely
to continue for the next 2-3 days. There was nighttime spread
F observed at near-equatorial and southern latitudes latitudes,suggesting
movement of ionisation away ('transport') from the region, as
geomagnetic activity has been Quiet, and this has probably contributed
to the MUF depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 90800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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