[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 21 09:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jul             22 Jul             23 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at Very Low levels during the 
last 24 hours with only minor B-class x-ray activity. An erupting 
filament on the east limb commenced late on the 19th and broke 
open ~02UT on the 20th with a coronal mass ejection observed 
~~0320UT by the C2 coronagraph on the SOHO spacecraft. The CME 
is substantial but not earthward directed so not expected to 
be geoeffective. Solar wind speed was in the low 270-290km/s 
range. The north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (IMF) was in the quiescent +/- 5nT range, not conducive 
to strong merging with the geomagnetic field. A weak shock was 
observed in the solar wind and IMF at 1456UT but it's effects 
on the geomagnetic field were minimal. Very Low to Low levels 
of solar activity may be expected in the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00101000
      Cocos Island         1   1-101000
      Darwin               2   11201000
      Townsville           1   01101001
      Learmonth            1   01101000
      Alice Springs        1   01101000
      Norfolk Island       0   00000000
      Culgoora             1   01101001
      Gingin               0   00100000
      Camden               1   10101000
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Launceston           0   00101000
      Hobart               0   00001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                0   10001000
      Mawson               3   21100112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0101 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jul     6    Quiet
22 Jul     6    Quiet
23 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at Quiet levels today 
due to low solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field 
remaining in the quiescent +/- 5nT range, not conducive to merging 
with the geomagnetic field. A weak shock observed in the solar 
wind and IMF at 1456UT had minimal impact on the geomagnetic 
field. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jul    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were depressed throughout the entire Australasian 
region for most of the day, more pronounced at low latitudes. 
This is due to the continued lack of ionising EUV and X-rays 
from the low spot count on the solar disc. This depressed state 
is likely to continue for the next few days, although slightly 
more sunspot activity is now evident and a pickup may be observed 
in 2-3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 306 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    28600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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