[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 21 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at Very Low levels during the
last 24 hours with only minor B-class x-ray activity. An erupting
filament on the east limb commenced late on the 19th and broke
open ~02UT on the 20th with a coronal mass ejection observed
~~0320UT by the C2 coronagraph on the SOHO spacecraft. The CME
is substantial but not earthward directed so not expected to
be geoeffective. Solar wind speed was in the low 270-290km/s
range. The north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) was in the quiescent +/- 5nT range, not conducive
to strong merging with the geomagnetic field. A weak shock was
observed in the solar wind and IMF at 1456UT but it's effects
on the geomagnetic field were minimal. Very Low to Low levels
of solar activity may be expected in the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00101000
Cocos Island 1 1-101000
Darwin 2 11201000
Townsville 1 01101001
Learmonth 1 01101000
Alice Springs 1 01101000
Norfolk Island 0 00000000
Culgoora 1 01101001
Gingin 0 00100000
Camden 1 10101000
Canberra 0 00100000
Launceston 0 00101000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 0 10001000
Mawson 3 21100112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 6 Quiet
22 Jul 6 Quiet
23 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at Quiet levels today
due to low solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field
remaining in the quiescent +/- 5nT range, not conducive to merging
with the geomagnetic field. A weak shock observed in the solar
wind and IMF at 1456UT had minimal impact on the geomagnetic
field. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed throughout the entire Australasian
region for most of the day, more pronounced at low latitudes.
This is due to the continued lack of ionising EUV and X-rays
from the low spot count on the solar disc. This depressed state
is likely to continue for the next few days, although slightly
more sunspot activity is now evident and a pickup may be observed
in 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 28600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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