[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 7 09:30:39 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 201/153
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 205/156 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with several C class flares
the greatest a C4 from region 2109 (S08E23). This region has
grown in size and complexity and may produce M-class flares in
the coming days. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 10010000
Cocos Island 1 00120000
Darwin 2 11020001
Townsville 2 11120001
Learmonth 1 10020000
Alice Springs 0 00020000
Norfolk Island 1 10010001
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 0 00010000
Camden 1 11010001
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 1 10010001
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 10110000
Mawson 6 30011004
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 5 Quiet
08 Jul 5 Quiet
09 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
overnight depressions of up to 20% seen in northern Australia.
Conditions mostly near to predicted monthly values are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 287 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 14800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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