[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 8 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 198/150
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 190/143
COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is near 200 and is predicted
to remain high until the current group of large active regions
rotate off the visible disk. AR 2108 is traversing the central
meridian. AR 2108 and AR 2109 are large and magnetically complex.
Their recent history suggests further C class flare activity
is likely, but they might release an M class flare during the
next 3 days. Solar flare was low during 7 July, the largest X
ray flare was a C4.1 event from AR 2109 peaking at 08:02 UT.
A weak coronal hole extends across the equator in the western
quadrant. Recent CMEs detected in SOHO LASCO images were ejected
toward the north and are unlikely to be geo-effective. The solar
wind speed trended upward from 260 km/s to 340 km/s during the
previous 24 hours. The IMF Bz component fluctuated in the range
-8 nT to +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Cocos Island 2 111-2100
Darwin 3 11112201
Townsville 4 12112202
Learmonth 3 11112111
Alice Springs 3 11112101
Norfolk Island 3 22002101
Culgoora 2 11112100
Gingin 2 11101111
Camden 2 11112100
Canberra 1 11011100
Launceston 3 21112100
Hobart 2 11111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 11101110
Mawson 14 42212244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1002 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 7 Quiet
09 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 7 July. The
arrival of faster solar wind may lead to intervals of unsettled
geomagnetic conditions during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was slightly depressed
(-5% to -15%) throughout the Australian region during 7 July.
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux values are expected to remain near
200 during coming days. This suggests conditions for HF radio
propagation will be strong for most of this week.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 274 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 23200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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