[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 6 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 193/145
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 190/143 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with the greatest flare
over the past 24 hours a C1. Several visible sunspot regions
remain of significant size and with magnetic complexity however
activity remains unexpectedly muted. Recent experience suggests
these conditions will continue and low level of activity will
persist for the next few days, however there is some chance one
or more of these regions could begin to produce up to M class
flares. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 2 12110011
Learmonth 1 10110011
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 0 00100001
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 0 00000001
Mawson 4 30010013
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2121 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 5 Quiet
07 Jul 5 Quiet
08 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. No disturbances are expected
over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
overnight depressions of up to 30% seen in northern Australia.
Conditions mostly near to predicted monthly values are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 25200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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