[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 30 10:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: The south-west quadrant was active with a filament eruption,
C4 flare from the vicinity of AR 11964 (S09 W47) and a CME. The
filament reported on 28 Jan was probably associated with this
activity. The CME is mostly directed away from Earth although
there could be some mild effects around 1-2 Feb. Three other
CMEs are not considered will be geo-effective. Background x-ray
flux remains elevated. AR 11967 (S13 E58) is classed as Fki and
remains magnetically complex with growth occurring in the trailing
spots. Other regions appear stable with AR 11968 (N10 E57) classed
as Eso. Chance of high solar activity from AR 11967. The solar
wind speed peaked at 530 km/s and has declined to 400 km/s. The
north-south IMF was mildly disturbed, ranging between +7 and
-6 nT. The solar wind remains under the influence of a minor
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Mostly quiet.
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22221212
Cocos Island 4 21211211
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22212212
Alice Springs 5 21211212
Norfolk Island 6 22221212
Culgoora 6 22--12--
Gingin 9 32312312
Camden 7 22321212
Canberra 7 22321212
Launceston 7 22322212
Hobart 7 22322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 21222301
Casey 28 56533213
Mawson 17 44323234
Davis 15 33------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0011 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 6 Quiet
31 Jan 5 Quiet
01 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Chance of some unsettled conditions 30 Jan due to a
minor coronal hole. Unsettled conditions possible on 1-2 Feb
due to mild CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-45% 08-19 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 15-40% 02-05, 09-20 UT at Darwin.
Enhanced 15-35% 01-06, 10-23 UT at Townsville.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-09 UT. Enhanced
15-35% 10-21 UT. Perth MUFs 15-35% enhanced 00-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 27
January and is current for 28-30 Jan. Sporadic E 10-11, 22 UT
at Townsville, 07-08, 11-13, 21-22 UT at Brisbane and 22-23 UT
with some night spread F at Hobart. Ionospheric propagation support
is expected to be near normal to enhanced 30 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 28600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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