[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 31 10:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0639UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 0817UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M6.6 1612UT probable lower South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains elevated with AR 11967
(S13 E45) the source of the M flares. Culgoora Observatory reports
that while the area and complexity are largely unchanged, the
spot count has increased significantly with the group classed
as Fkc. Region 11968 (N10 E45), an Esi group, has emerging interior
spots; other regions are stable. Good chance of high M or X flares
from AR 11967. CMEs were associated with the 0817 UT and 1612
UT flares. The earlier CME is unlikely to be geoeffective. The
latter CME is faster and is displayed as a halo event in SOHO
images although most material is directed southeast. This CME
is likely to moderately impact Earth on about 2 Feb. The solar
wind was mostly undisturbed although ACE density measurements
show the wind was still under the influence of the minor coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 22100011
Cocos Island 1 21100000
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 3 12100022
Learmonth 3 21200012
Alice Springs 3 22100012
Norfolk Island 2 2-000021
Culgoora 5 221001-3
Gingin 3 22200001
Camden 2 12100011
Canberra 2 02100011
Launceston 3 13201001
Hobart 2 12101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Casey 15 45420112
Mawson 13 55111110
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2212 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 5 Quiet
01 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Activity is expected to increase, possibly as early
as 1 Feb, due to CME events. A chance of isolated minor storm
levels on 2 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-40% 08-18 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 15-30% 00-15 UT then near predicted
monthly values at Darwin. Enhanced 20-30% 00-08,
13-14 UT, otherwise near predicted monthly values
at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 15-30% enhanced with frequencies near
predicted monthly values at Christchurch and Hobart
00-10 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 30
January and is current for 31 Jan to 2 Feb. Ionospheric propagation
support is expected to be good with near normal to enhanced frequencies
31 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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