[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 14 issued 0158 UT on 29 Jan 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 29 12:58:57 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0409UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.6 0731UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1138UT possible lower European
M1.3 1247UT possible lower European
M3.5 1526UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
M4.9 1940UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M2.6 2216UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains elevated. The M-class
flares originated from the large, complex AR 11967 (S13 E71)
which has an Fki classification. AR 11968 (N11 E72) produced
one C flare. All sunspot regions appear stable. Possible high
solar activity during the forecast period from AR 11967. Some
weak CMEs were observed in available LASCO/STEREO images but
none are considered Earth directed. SDO images show activity
near the south-west limb from ~1600 UT onwards that looks like
an eruptive filament. The solar wind was undisturbed until ~2130
UT when speed increased to ~450 km/s. This is likely the influence
of a recurrent coronal hole which appears much reduced in size
to last rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11111223
Cocos Island 2 11100112
Darwin 3 10101222
Townsville 5 11111223
Learmonth 4 10101223
Alice Springs 3 11001222
Norfolk Island 2 00000122
Culgoora 5 01111223
Gingin 4 11100123
Camden 4 01111123
Canberra 3 01110113
Launceston 6 11211223
Hobart 4 11111222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 00111111
Casey 12 34321223
Mawson 10 22111244
Davis 8 13222232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 6 Quiet
31 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mild activity on 29 Jan due to a recurrent coronal hole;
possible isolated active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
No data 16-20 UT.
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 25-55% 07-15 UT. Near predicted monthly
values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 15-25% 09-15, 21 UT at Darwin and 25-30%
06-15 UT at Townsville. Near predicted monthly
values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced 15-30% 05-15 UT. Perth frequencies enhanced
15-30% enhanced 00-01, 10-15 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 115 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan 115 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 27
January and is current for 28-30 Jan. Ionospheric propagation
support is expected to be near normal to enhanced 29 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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