[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 28 10:30:22 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0125UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0212UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.9 2211UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 160/114 170/124
COMMENT: The background solar x-ray flux has increased. Three
M flares from AR 11967 (S13 E80) as well as seven C flares. Regions
11967 and 11968 (N11 E80) have rotated onto the solar disc. There
were a number of CME events observed in LASCO/STEREO images although
none are considered to be Earth directed. Available ACE data
show the solar wind undisturbed. Region 1944 (S12) which previously
produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 28 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Cocos Island 1 11000001
Darwin 3 11111102
Townsville 3 12101112
Learmonth 2 11101111
Alice Springs 2 11001102
Norfolk Island 2 11000122
Culgoora 3 11101112
Gingin 1 11001101
Camden 3 11101112
Canberra 2 11001102
Launceston 4 12101212
Hobart 3 12001202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11001101
Casey 15 45322122
Mawson 13 33122225
Davis 8 23222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 3221 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 5 Quiet
29 Jan 6 Quiet
30 Jan 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-40% 01-14, 17-18 UT. Enhanced 60-70%
15-16 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-05, 22-23 UT.
Enhanced 20-40% at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Blanketing sporadic E 02-03 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 27
January and is current for 28-30 Jan. Ionospheric propagation
support is expected to be near normal to enhanced 28 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 69200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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