[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 13 10:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. The
largest event was a C3.9 X-ray flare from region 1944 (S10W69).
Regions 1944 and 1946 (N08W74) are declining, though the former
still has potential for M-class flares. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate on 13-14 Jan and low on 15-Jan as region
1944 rotates off the solar disc. The solar wind speed started
the UT day at ~400 km/s but has risen since then as coronal hole
effects took hold. The wind speed is currently ~700 km/s. The
IMF Bz component has remained in the range +/-5nT for much of
the day. It has been predominantly negative for the last 4 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 21211133
Darwin 5 21101123
Townsville 7 22211133
Learmonth 8 21212233
Alice Springs 5 21111123
Culgoora 7 21211133
Gingin 6 21212123
Camden 7 21211133
Canberra 6 10211133
Launceston 9 11222234
Hobart 7 11211233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 01122122
Casey 21 24542334
Mawson 17 22323345
Davis 26 33433346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 12 Unsettled to Active
14 Jan 5 Quiet
15 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over
the last 24 hours were mostly quiet until around 18UT. Since
then some unsettled to active conditions have been observed.
Conditions in the Antarctic region reached minor storm levels
at times over the UT day. These conditions are most likely due
to an elevated solar wind speed and disturbed IMF. Further unsettled
to active periods are expected during 13-Jan, with conditions
returning to quiet levels by 14-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0900UT 06/01, Ended at 1725UT 11/01
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1800UT 11/01, Ended at 1915UT 11/01
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1940UT 11/01, Ended at 0255UT 12/01
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0320UT 12/01, Ended at 0550UT 12/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is a chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next
2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 12
January and is current for 13-14 Jan. MUFs were near predicted
values to enhanced across the Aus/NZ region over the last 24
hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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