[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 14 issued 2336 UT on 13 Jan 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 14 10:36:36 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 2151UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during the last 24 hours.
The largest event was an M1.3 class X-ray flare reported by Holloman
Solar Observatory to be from active region 1944 (S10W82). Regions
1944 is declining, though there is still moderate chance for
an M-class flare. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
on 14 Jan and low on 15-16 Jan as region 1944 rotates off the
solar disc. The solar wind speed ranged between 900 and 650 km/s
over the last 24 hours and is presently declining as the coronal
hole rotates toward the west limb. The IMF Bz component has remained
in the range +/-5nT during the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 33321112
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 7 23321112
Learmonth 9 33322103
Alice Springs 6 22321102
Culgoora 7 23311112
Gingin 9 33322103
Camden 8 33311112
Canberra 8 33311112
Launceston 9 33321113
Hobart 8 33311112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 33211001
Casey 46 67643223
Mawson 19 45433213
Davis 18 45433221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1002 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 6 Quiet
16 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over
the last 24 hours were mostly Unsettled to Quiet. Conditions
in the Antarctic region reached minor storm levels at times early
in the UT day. These conditions are due to an elevated solar
wind speed. Expect conditions to gradually return to Quiet conditions
today as the high speed solar wind stream returns to normal levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1940UT 11/01, Ended at 0255UT 12/01
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0320UT 12/01, Ended at 0550UT 12/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is a chance of short-wave fadeouts for today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 90 Near to 10% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 12
January and is current for 13-14 Jan. MUFs were near predicted
values to enhanced across the Aus/NZ region over the last 24
hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 296000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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