[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 12 10:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 1950 (N16E19) and 1944 (S09W58).
The latter produced the largest event, a C6 flare. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 days, with a
chance of X-class flares. The solar wind speed has varied between
350-450 km/s. The IMF Bz component was negative, down to -8nT
between 17-20UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Darwin 3 11101122
Townsville 5 11111132
Learmonth 6 11112133
Alice Springs 3 10111122
Culgoora 3 10111-22
Gingin 3 01101032
Camden 4 11111122
Canberra 2 00101022
Launceston 5 11211132
Hobart 2 00101122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000020
Casey 12 23332233
Mawson 15 22112163
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2100 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet over the last 24 hours, with some isolated unsettled
conditions since 18UT. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for the next 2 days, with mostly quiet conditions on 14-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0900UT 06/01, Ended at 1725UT 11/01
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1800UT 11/01, Ended at 1915UT 11/01
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 12 01 2014 0640UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is a chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 125 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 9
January and is current for 10-12 Jan. MUFs were near predicted
values to enhanced across the Aus/NZ region over the last 24
hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 91200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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