[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 11 10:30:22 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 1944, 1946 and 1950. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
for the next 3 days, with a chance of X-class flares. The solar
wind speed varied mostly in the range 350-450 km/s. The IMF Bz
component varied between -4 to +8 nT, predominantly positive.
The wind speed is likely to be elevated on 12-Jan with the effects
of an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11221212
Darwin 5 21221212
Townsville 6 22221212
Learmonth 5 12221212
Alice Springs 3 1112020-
Culgoora 4 11221211
Gingin 5 2212121-
Camden 4 11221211
Canberra 1 00111101
Launceston 6 12222212
Hobart 4 12212201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 1100220-
Casey 22 4633221-
Mawson 12 4422222-
Davis 10 33332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3112 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. These conditions are expected
to continue into 11-Jan, becoming unsettled to active late in
the UT day with the onset of coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are likely for 12-13 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 06 01 2014 2000UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
COMMENT: There is a chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 9
January and is current for 10-12 Jan. MUFs were near predicted
values to enhanced across the Aus/NZ region over the last 24
hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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