[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 10 10:30:27 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
region 1946 (N08W31) producing a C-class flare. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit remain over 100 pfu. Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next 3 days, with a chance of X-class flares.
The solar wind varied between ~350-450 km/s for most of the day,
until a moderate shock was observed at 09/1930UT, probably signalling
the arrival of the CME observed on 7-Jan. The wind speed peaked
at 527 km/s with the shock, but has since abated. The wind speed
is likely to increase on 12-Jan with the effects of an equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23221143
Darwin 8 22211142
Townsville 11 32222143
Learmonth 10 22211152
Alice Springs 9 23221142
Culgoora 8 -2221133
Gingin 8 32211042
Camden 10 23321133
Canberra 8 23211033
Launceston 10 23321133
Hobart 8 23321032
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 22222022
Casey 25 46432243
Mawson 22 55323243
Davis 24 45443243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 3300 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan 5 Quiet
12 Jan 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 8 January and
is current for 9-10 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet
over the Australian region for much of the UT day. A weak (17nT)
impulse was observed at 09/2011UT in the IPS magnetometer data,
following which conditions briefly reached unsettled to minor
storm levels. Conditions have since abated and are now quiet
to unsettled. These conditions are likely to pertain during 10-Jan,
with mostly quiet conditions on 11-Jan. Unsettled to active conditions
are expected on 12-Jan, due to the effects of an equatorial coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 06 01 2014 2000UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2015UT 07/01, Ended at 1215UT 08/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications
Warning 3 was issued on 9 January and is current for 10-12 Jan.
MUFs were moderately enhanced across the Aus/NZ region over the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 70300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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