[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 27 10:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1501UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate due
to an M1.1 flare from AR1982 and sundry C class flares, mainly
from the same region. AR1990 was conspicuously inactive and is
now only ~200 millionths of the solar disc, considerably smaller
than it's last transits as AR1967 and 1944. The X4.9 flare on
25 Feb may have expended a large part of it's flare potential
although it's size and magnetic complexity still show potential
for M class and possibly X class flares. The large CME issued
to the east with the X4.9 flare is predicted to approach Earth
distance late on 26th Feb UT. As the source was at 82 deg E,
it appears unlikely to be geoeffective. However SOHO LASCO observations
assessed the CME to be an asymmetric partial halo and the GEOSTAT
countdown has been initiated. Solar protons flux is still at
the low S1 level, unlikely to be a threat to spacecraft. The
overall potential for M flares across all the active regions
on the disc is high. Solar wind speed (Vsw) remained steady near
380km/s over the UT day. A latitudinally spread but longitudinally
narrow coronal hole CH605, is now west of central meridian and
should enhance speeds in 2-3 days time for less than 24 hours
duration. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF Bz) ranged between +/-5nT not effective for geomagnetic
merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 10100001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 10100002
Townsville 2 10100012
Learmonth 2 21100001
Alice Springs 1 10000002
Norfolk Island 0 10000010
Culgoora 1 10100001
Gingin 1 20100001
Camden 1 10100001
Canberra 1 10100001
Launceston 2 11102001
Hobart 1 10100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 7 33321011
Mawson 5 31211111
Davis 4 22311010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 6 Quiet
01 Mar 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed at mid and low latitudes over
the last 24 hours. Unsettled at high-latitudes. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions for 27 Feb with possible isolated Unsettled
periods if the fast but eastwards CME from AR1990, associated
with X4.9 flare on 25 Feb, is wide enough for a glancing blow.
28Feb should be Quiet in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards
or fast CME activity on 27 Feb from AR1982 which is in a geoeffective
position. Elevated solar wind speed from coronal hole 605 (see
Solar section) could take effect as early as 1 Mar to create
Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Polar Cap Absorption due to low S1 level proton flux
associated with AR1990 X4.9 flare on 24 Feb. Possibly abate on
27 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 25
February and is current for 26-28 Feb. Observed MUF's for most
of Australasia were near or slightly above monthly median values
during the day but enhanced 25-35% at night. This is possibly
due to wind transport at night of enhanced ionisation from the
daylight hemisphere due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced
by numerous active regions on the disc. The numerous active regions
on the disc collectively represent a high probability of M class
flares and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Previously active
(X4.9 flare 25 Feb) AR1990 has become conspicuously quiet and
reduced in size so X class flares and deep SWFs are not as likely.
Geomagnetic activity expected to be Quiet-Unsettled for 27-28th
Feb so ionosphere not expected to be too variable. Elevated solar
wind speed from coronal hole CH605 may take effect as early as
1 Mar and create moderately variable MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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