[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 14 issued 2331 UT on 27 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 28 10:31:13 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low, against
statistical expectations for the multiple active region on the
disc, with C class flares, from 4 regions and particularly AR1991.
AR1990 was again conspicuously inactive. However strong potential
remains for M class flares. The large CME issued to the east
with the X4.9 flare on ~01UT 25th Feb arrived at ~16UT at the
L1 point (ACE spacecraft), considerably later than predicted
and flight-time was longer than 48 hours so the edge of the CME
was considerably slower than the launched CMEs initial fast speed
suggested. Despite the strong eastward direction the CME is considerably
more geoeffective than expected, suggesting the front was very
wide. Solar wind speed (Vsw) remained steady near 380km/s until
the CME arrival ~16UT when it increased to ~500km/s and has remained
elevated. IMF Bz was mildly south before CME arrival, turned
initially north on CME arrival and then strongly south to -20nT
before settling at -10nT at ~19UT, very effective for geomagnetic
merging. A latitudinally spread but longitudinally narrow coronal
hole CH605, now close to most geoeffective position, should enhance
speeds in 1-2 days time for less than 24 hours duration.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 17 11012554
Cocos Island 9 10001443
Darwin 11 11002444
Townsville 15 11112544
Learmonth 20 11012555
Alice Springs 14 11012544
Norfolk Island 10 01012443
Culgoora 17 01012554
Gingin 20 11012555
Camden 17 01112554
Canberra 13 01011454
Launceston 24 02112565
Hobart 15 02112454
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 26 11013664
Casey 16 34322334
Mawson 16 33212444
Davis 16 23323443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 10 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
WEAK SUDDEN IMPULSE DETECTED (17nT) IN IPS MAG DATA 27 02 14 1651UT
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Mar 12 Unsettled
02 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed until arrival of the
edge of the eastward directed CME from AR1990, associated with
X4.9 flare on 01UT UT25 Feb, struck the geomagnetic field ~1650UT.
The CME front was slower but wider than expected. So arrival
was several hours after that predicted, but it has been considerably
more geoeffective than predicted, with Minor Storm levels achieved
at some stations. The solar wind speed elevation was modest from
~~380 to 500km/s but after an initial northward IMF the Bz turned
strongly south to -20nT for 1-2 hours and then settled at -10nT
since, strongly conducive to geomagnetic merging. Activity will
diminish during 28th Feb as Bz returns from sustained southwards
but elevated solar wind speed from coronal hole 605 (see Solar
section) could take effect 1 Mar to continue Unsettled conditions,
so a return to Quiet will probably not occur till 2nd Mar .
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Polar Cap Absorption due to low S1 level proton flux
associated with AR1990 X4.9 flare on 24 Feb. Slightly elevation
of proton flux geomagnetic storm induced by arrival of CME edge
associated with this flare but still at S1 level. Possibly abate
by 1 Mar .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 100 Near to 5% above predicted monthly values
01 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 25
February and is current for 26-28 Feb. Observed MUF's for most
of Australasia were above monthly median values during the day
and night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by numerous
active regions on the disc. The numerous active regions on the
disc collectively represent a high probability of M class flares
and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Geomagnetic activity
has been elevated late in the UT day to Active/Minor Storm by
the late arrival of the coronal mass ejection associated with
the X4.9 flare 01UT 25th Feb from AR1990. Despite the CME being
directed eastward, the front was very wide and the effect is
stronger than expected. Hence early in the UT day on 28th Feb
MUFs may be suppressed but only toward median levels as they
are already enhanced. Elevated solar wind speed from narrow coronal
hole CH605 may take effect as early as 1 Mar and continue Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions creating moderately variable MUFs until
2 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 43300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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