[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 26 10:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X4/-- 0049UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High due to
an X4.9 flare from AR1990, newly rotated onto the solar disc
and is returning region AR1967/1944. There were also mid C level
flares from ARs 1986 and 1989. A large CME was issued with the
X4.9 flare but it is directed towards the east as the source
in AR1990 was at 82 deg E, and hence unlikely to be geoeffective.
However SOHO LASCO observations assessed the CME to be an asymmetric
partial halo and the GEOSTAT countdown has been initiated. Solar
protons reached Earth a few hours later and the flux is currently
at the low S1 level, unlikely to be a threat to spacecraft. AR1990
has potential for further X class flares and other spot groups
such as AR1981/82 have potential for M flares. Solar wind speed
(Vsw) gradually decreased from 450km/s to 380km/s over the UT
day. A latitudinally spread but longitudinally narrow coronal
hole CH605, is near central meridian and should enhance speeds
in 3-4 days time for less than 24 hours. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz) ranged between
+/-5nT not effective for geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 31001101
Cocos Island 1 21000100
Darwin 3 31100101
Townsville 4 40000111
Learmonth 5 41001102
Alice Springs 4 40000101
Norfolk Island 1 20001001
Culgoora 3 30001011
Gingin 5 41001102
Camden 2 30001001
Canberra 2 30001001
Launceston 4 31012102
Hobart 4 31012101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 10011001
Casey 10 43321212
Mawson 13 21012126
Davis 6 22112213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1112 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 6 Quiet
27 Feb 6 Quiet
28 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions mostly observed at mid and low latitudes
over the last 24 hours after an initial Unsettled 3 hours. Unsettled
at high-latitudes ~13-15UT probably due to a weak shock in the
solar wind observed at the L1 point by the ACE spacecraft ~1215UT.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for 26Feb-28Feb in the absence
of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or CME activity from AR1982 which
is in a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: A strong short wave fadeout was observed across the
region early in the UT day (~0050UT) for a couple of hours due
to an X4.9 flare from sunspot group AR1990 newly rotated onto
the disc (see Solar section). The SWF epicentre was NE of Australia
and models indicated ALF for the east coast over 1500km path
to be elevated from 5 to 20MHz. Many ionosondes showed 100% absorption
across the HF band. AR1990 appears to hold further potential for
X or at least M class flares and further SWFs should be expected.
Observed MUF's for most of Australasia were near monthly median
values during the day but enhanced 15-30% at night. This is possibly
due to wind transport at night of enhanced ionisation from the
daylight hemisphere due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced
by numerous active regions on the disc. Geomagnetic activity
expected to be Quiet for 26-28th Feb so ionosphere not expected
to be too variable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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