[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 14 issued 2353 UT on 22 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 23 10:53:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity for 22Feb was Low with the largest event
being a C7.7 at 1550UT. Solar wind speed (Vsw) ranged between
430km/s to 460km/s over the UT day. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +3nT
and -5nT over the UT day. Possible increase in solar wind speed
is expected over the next 24 hours due to CME arrivals. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days
with the chance of an M-class flare. Region 1967 (S13) which
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 23 Feb.
Also, region 1968 (N11) which previously produced M-flare(s)
is due to return around this date.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22222322
Cocos Island 6 22211312
Darwin 7 22221322
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 9 32222322
Alice Springs 7 22221322
Norfolk Island 7 22222222
Culgoora 7 22221312
Gingin 9 32222322
Camden 8 22232312
Canberra 7 22232212
Launceston 10 22332322
Hobart 8 22231312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 14 43233421
Casey 17 44433322
Mawson 22 45333424
Davis 71 34933632
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3223 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 12 Unsettled
24 Feb 6 Quiet
25 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions with possible Active
to Minor Storm periods dependent upon potential CME arrivals
over the next 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions for 24Feb-25Feb
otherwise.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 22-23 Feb. Observed MUF's for Northern AUS
regions ranged from near monthly normal values to enhanced during
local day and night over the last 24 hours. MUF's ranging from
near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% observed for
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions with notable disturbed
periods for Antarctic regions due to recent elevated geomagnetic
activity. MUF's are expected to range from near monthly predicted
values to enhanced by ~15% for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions
over the 3 days. Ionospheric support is expected to recover for
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 hours with near predicted
monthly values and possible enhanced conditions for 24Feb-25Feb.
Slight chance of depressed conditions during local night for
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 hours should CME arrivals
and increased geomagnetic activity eventuate. Similar outlook
for Antarctic regions for the next 3 days. Further short-wave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 21500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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