[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 14 issued 2351 UT on 23 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 24 10:51:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0614UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate,
with the largest event being a M1.1 flare at 0610UT. Solar wind
speed (Vsw) ranged between 400km/s to 500km/s over the UT day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) ranged between +7nT and -5nT from 00UT till 14UT, after
which it swung southward between 14UT-18UT reaching a maximum
of -11nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for
the next 3 days with the chance of an M-class flare. Regions
1967 (S13) and 1968 (N11) which previously produced M-flare(s)
are due to return around 23Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 17 12432444
Cocos Island 12 22323333
Darwin 16 11433344
Townsville 19 12433345
Learmonth 21 22433445
Alice Springs 18 12432345
Norfolk Island 14 11432334
Culgoora 19 11432445
Gingin 16 22332444
Camden 19 11432445
Canberra 17 11432444
Launceston 26 22533455
Hobart 17 12432444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 35 11354664
Casey 24 35632223
Mawson 32 44634452
Davis 25 33554342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 5323 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 12 Unsettled
25 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Unsettled conditions with possible Active periods are
expected over the next 24 hours. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 25Feb-26Feb. In the IPS magnetometer data for 23 Feb, a weak
(13nT) impulse was observed at 0704UT and a weak (6nT) impulse
was observed at 1829UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS
regions ranged from near monthly normal values to enhanced during
local day and night over the last 24 hours. Antarctic regions
experienced notable disturbed periods. MUF's are expected to
range from near monthly predicted values to enhanced by ~15%
for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS/Equatorial regions over
the 3 days. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions expected
for the next 24 hours. Increased chance of short-wave fadeouts
due to returning active solar regions over the next 24-48 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 82000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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