[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 14 issued 2347 UT on 21 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 22 10:47:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity for 21Feb was Low with no significant
flare activity above C2 class. Solar wind speed (Vsw) gradually
declined from peak values ~560km/s to be 460km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) was southward, ranging between -1nT and -4nT
for the majority of the UT day. An expected increase in solar
wind speed is expected over the next 36 hours with anticipated
arrival of 2 partial halo CME's and possible shock arrival from
the M3.0 flare from 20Feb. Solar activity is expected to be Low
to Moderate for the next 3 days with the slight chance of an
M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 21122312
Cocos Island 4 11122201
Darwin 5 21112311
Townsville 7 22122322
Learmonth 7 21122322
Alice Springs 6 21122312
Norfolk Island 5 11122212
Culgoora 5 21122212
Gingin 8 21123322
Camden 6 21122312
Canberra 5 21122211
Launceston 9 22223322
Hobart 8 22223312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 12244411
Casey 12 34322223
Mawson 23 43233355
Davis 14 33433232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 40 1656 6322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 16 Active
23 Feb 12 Unsettled
24 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. CME arrivals are expected over the next 36hours. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be Quiet to Active with isolated Minor
Storm periods for 22Feb. Unsettled to Quiet conditions for 23Feb
and Quiet conditions for 24Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0840UT 20/02, Ended at 1005UT 20/02
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1040UT 20/02, Ended at 1110UT 20/02
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed for Northern AUS regions
during local day and night. MUF's ranging from near predicted
monthly values to depressed by 15% observed for Southern AUS/NZ
and Antarctic regions with notable disturbed periods for Antarctic
regions due to recent elevated geomagnetic activity. MUF's are
expected to range from near monthly predicted values to enhanced
by ~15% for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions over the next 24
hours. MUF's expected to be to near monthly predicted values
to depressed by 15% for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions
for the next 3 days with continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Further short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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