[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 28 10:30:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 0217UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 27 December,
with an M2 flare and one minor C-class flare occurring from active
region 2249((S10W61). Available LASCO C2 imagery does not indicate
any significant CME. Solar background X-ray flux has declined
to nominal levels. There are currently 5 numbered regions on
the visible disk with regions 2248((S17E27) and 2249 undergone
some growth over the last 24 hours while the other regions are
either stable or in declining. Expect Low to Moderate solar activity
over the next three days. The Bz component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field trended from mildly negative (-9nT) early in the
UT day to neutral late in the day. Solar wind speed remained
near 550 km/s until about 0500UT after which it decreased steadily
to 400km/s at the time of report issue. Expect the solar wind
speed to remain near this level (400km/s) or slightly below over
the the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22212111
Cocos Island 3 22121000
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 6 32212111
Learmonth 5 32222100
Alice Springs 4 22212101
Norfolk Island 4 22212011
Culgoora 7 2-------
Gingin 6 32222110
Camden 6 23212111
Canberra 3 22201000
Hobart 5 23212100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 22322110
Casey 25 56433222
Mawson 18 53333233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 3422 2253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet with isolated cases
of Unsettled conditions across the Australian region during the
UT day, 27 December. Antarctic region ranged from Quiet to Minor
Storm. Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts
over the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the UT
day 27 Dec. Good conditions for HF radio propagation are expected
for the next 3 days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts
over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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