[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 29 10:30:32 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day 28 Dec, with
only minor C-class flares from region 2248(S19E07). Two new regions
2251(S12E52) and 2252(S20E63) were numbered today. There are
currently 7 numbered regions on the visible disk with regions
2248 and 2249(S10W65) showed further growth while other regions
are relatively stable. Expect Low solar activity with a chance
for an M-class flare over the next three days. Available LASCO
C2 imagery does not indicate any significant CME. Solar wind
speed was relatively steady at about 400 km/s over the UT day.
The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-5nT with mildly negative (-9nT)
late in the UT day. Expect the solar wind speed to remain light
over the the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Mostly Quiet
with one isolated Unsettled to Active period.
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 21211242
Cocos Island 5 11111232
Darwin 9 21222242
Townsville 8 21221242
Learmonth 8 21121242
Alice Springs 7 11111242
Norfolk Island 4 10111132
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 10 22222243
Camden 6 21211232
Canberra 3 10100132
Hobart 7 11211242
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 11111242
Casey 23 34543343
Mawson 15 33323343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3121 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet. Sustained
negative IMF Bz component late UT day resulted in one isolated
Unsettled to Active period ~2100 UT. Conditions are expected
to be mostly Quiet 29-31 Dec with possible isolated Unsettled
intervals should any Bz southward excursions occur.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day
28 Dec. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced values
are expected 29-31 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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