[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 14 issued 2332 UT on 26 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 27 10:32:07 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Low over the UT day, 26 Dec.
The largest flare of the period was a C6.5 flare from region
2249(S12W41) at 1807UT. Region 2248 (S21E41) also produced low
level C-class activity. Available satellite imagery does not
indicate any significant CME, although no imagery is currently
available for the C6 event. There are 7 numbered regions on the
visible solar disk and several regions have the potential for
further isolated C- to M-class flare activity. Solar wind speed
was steady at 450 km/s until about 17UT after which it increased
steadily to 550 km/s at the time of report issue. Since 17UT
the IMF Bz component has trended moderately negative to -10nT.
The elevated solar wind parameters indicate onset of an anticipated
coronal hole wind stream. The current coronal hole wind stream
is expected to continue for the next few days, possibly intensifying
today, 27 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33221233
Cocos Island 8 32121232
Darwin 11 33222233
Townsville 10 33221233
Learmonth 12 33221243
Alice Springs 10 33221133
Norfolk Island 8 23211133
Culgoora 10 33221233
Gingin 12 42221243
Camden 10 33221233
Canberra 8 33211132
Hobart 14 34321243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 34331233
Casey 34 36643343
Mawson 26 44533254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2110 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 16 Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods.
28 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet to Unsettled
at low to mid latitudes with isolated Active intervals at some
stations. Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions were observed at
high latitudes. The Earth is currently under the influence of
a slow coronal hole wind stream which is expected to persist
for the next few days. Further elevated geomagnetic conditions
are possible over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day
26 December. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced
values are expected for the forecast. Periods of slightly degraded
HF conditions are possible at high latitudes, with a moderate
chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 84600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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