[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 14 issued 2336 UT on 25 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 26 10:36:02 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 25 Dec. The largest
flare over the the period was a C4.3 flare from region 2248(S20E47)
at 1211UT. There are 7 numbered regions on the visible solar
disk and most appear stable or declining. Several regions have
the potential for further isolated C- to M-class flare activity.
No significant earthward directed CME has been observed by the
time of this report. Solar wind speed remained around 500km/s
over the last 24 hours. IMF Bz component showed moderate fluctuations
to +/-6nT with some sustained periods of moderate negative bias
since 17UT. Expect the solar wind speed to remain near 5000km/s
or slightly below today, 26 Dec. On 27 December the solar wind
stream may gain strength due to a coronal hole moving into a
geoeffective location on the solar disc.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 21113233
Cocos Island 5 21102132
Darwin 7 21113223
Townsville 8 21113233
Learmonth 8 21212233
Alice Springs 7 21113223
Norfolk Island 7 11103233
Culgoora 9 21213233
Gingin 10 21114233
Camden 9 22213233
Canberra 6 11103223
Hobart 8 22213223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 12105323
Casey 28 46533333
Mawson 34 34425456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 4221 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 16 Unsettled to Active.
28 Dec 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 25 Dec. Expect these conditions to prevail today,26 Dec.
27-28 Dec, activity levels will likely increase to Active levels
in the Australian region due to a coronal hole moving into a
geoeffective location.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day
25 December. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced
values are expected for 26 Dec. Periods of degraded HF conditions
might occur in the mid to southern Australian regions, on 27-28
Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list