[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 14 issued 2331 UT on 24 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 25 10:31:57 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 24 December,
with several C-class flares occurring from active regions 2241(S12W61),
2242(S16W85) and 2245(N10E31). The largest flare was an C3.7
flare from active region 2241, peaking at 0237 UT. This flare
was associated with a CME observed on LASCO C2 imagery first
at 0336UT, does not appear to be geoeffective. There are currently
6 numbered regions on the visible disk with region 2245 undergone
some growth over the last 24 hours while the other regions are
either stable or in declining. Expect Low to Moderate solar activity
over the next three days. There is the slight chance of an isolated
X class flare over the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained
around 550 km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz component
showed moderate fluctuations (+/-10nT) early in the UT day becoming
stable (+/-5nT) later in the UT day. Expect the solar wind speed
to remain near 500km/s or slightly below over the the next 24
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 42223231
Cocos Island 5 31111221
Darwin 10 42123222
Townsville 11 42223232
Learmonth 15 52223332
Alice Springs 8 32123221
Norfolk Island 9 32213231
Culgoora 8 32223221
Gingin 15 52223332
Camden 10 32223232
Canberra 7 31213221
Hobart 11 42223231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 20 43335431
Casey 33 56444343
Mawson 39 44335664
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1004 2134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 16 Quiet Active.
26 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The low to mid latitude regional geomagnetic field was
Unsettled with one Active period observed ~00UT day at most stations.
Elevated geomagnetic activity observed early UT day, 24 Dec is
due to persistence of CME effects. Expect Quiet to Active geomagnetic
conditions today,25 Dec. 26-27 Dec will likely return to Quiet
to Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day
24 December. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced
values are expected for the next 3 days. There is the chance
of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 182000 K Bz: 10 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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