[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 14 issued 2344 UT on 21 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 22 10:44:01 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0735UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1229UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 206/157
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 200/152 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 21 December,
with two M-class flares from active regions 2242 (S18W58) and
2241 (S11W34). The largest of the two was an M1.2/1N flare peaking
at 0732UT from active region 2242. There was a eruptive prominence
on the northeast limb observed in H-alpha and LASCO C2 imagery
at approximately 0150UT, not expected to be geo-effective. Expect
Moderate to High activity over the next 3 days. Note there is
a low to moderate chance for X-class flares. The solar wind speed
ranged between 340-450 km/s over the last 24 hours. A moderate
shock was observed in the solar wind at 21/1823UT stepping from
360 to 440 km/s. This shock is most likely associated with the
M6.9 class flare occurring on 18/2158UT. The IMF Bz component
ranged between +10/-13 nT. Note: ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 21/1630UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Region
2222 (S19) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return
around 22 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 12222233
Cocos Island 6 12112132
Darwin 9 22222233
Townsville 9 12223233
Learmonth 13 22223244
Alice Springs 8 12222233
Norfolk Island 6 12212132
Culgoora 9 22223133
Gingin 10 22222243
Camden 9 12223233
Canberra 5 12212122
Hobart 12 22333233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 21 12345443
Casey 17 34432234
Mawson 40 35724354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 25 Active
23 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 21 December
and is current for 22 Dec only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet to Unsettled across the Australian region during the UT
day, 21 December, however, the IPS magnetometer data observed
a weak (10nT) impulse at 1912UT. Therefore, expect Unsettled
to Active levels for the final hours of the UT day, 22 December.
Antarctic region ranged from Unsettled to Minor Storm. Expect
Unsettled to Active levels for the next 24 hours with isolated
periods of Minor and Major Storm levels in the Australian region.
23-24 December will likely return to Quiet to Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for
the next few days. There is a chance of a polar cap absorption
today, 22 December, due to elevated 10MeV proton flux measured
from the GOES spacecraft.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 122 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 63 was issued
on 19 December and is current for 21-22 Dec. IPS SWF HF Communications
Warning 64 was issued on 21 December and is current for 21-23
Dec. MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day 21
December. Isolated cases of sporadic E were observed in the Australian
region. Expect near predicted values with periods of depressed
conditions on 22 December due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
23-24 December should return to near predicted to enhanced conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 67300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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