[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 14 issued 2343 UT on 22 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 23 10:43:25 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0150UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 22 December.
Region 2242(S18W57) produced an M1 flare at 0732UT along with
two high level C-class events. Regions 2242 and 2241(S10W33)
remain large and magnetically complex; Solar activity is expected
to remain Moderate with a chance for an X-class event for the
next three days. The solar wind speed remained around 400 Km/s
until ~1500UT, then increased to about 500Km/s. This was associated
with an increase in temperature and density, most likely associated
with the December 20 CME. The he IMF Bz component ranged between
+/-13 nT and is currently positive. Note: ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 22/0345UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33222322
Cocos Island 9 33212322
Darwin 11 33222323
Townsville 10 33222322
Learmonth 12 43222323
Alice Springs 10 33222322
Norfolk Island 8 33221212
Culgoora 10 33222322
Gingin 15 54222312
Camden 9 33322212
Canberra 7 33211211
Hobart 10 34321212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 24 56432212
Casey 30 56432344
Mawson 29 66432322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2222 3244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 16 Quiet to Active
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region during the UT day, 22 December.
Antarctic region ranged from Unsettled to Storm levels. IPS magnetometer
data observed a weak (11nT) impulse at 1511UT most likely associated
with the predicted December 20 CME. Expect Quiet to Active geomagnetic
conditions today,23 December. 24-25 December will likely return
to Quiet to Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high
latitudes, with a chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 21
December and is current for 21-23 Dec. MUFs were mostly near
predicted over the UT day 22 December. Isolated cases of sporadic
E were observed in the Australian region. Expect near predicted
values with periods of depressed conditions on 23 December due
to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity. There is the
chance of short-wave fadeouts for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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