[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 21 10:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/3B 0028UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 203/154
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 205/156 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity was High for the UT day, 20 December,
with an X-class flare and several C-class flares occurring from
active region 2242. The largest flare over the UT day, 20 December,
was an X1.8/3B from active region 2242 (S19W45), peaking at 20/0028
UT with associated Type II sweep (shock speed ~850km/s). LASCO
C2 imagery shows an associated CME to the southwest. Based on
Enlil model this CME is expected to have a glancing blow on 22
December. CME occurring on 17 December has not arrived yet and
appears to have passed south of the Earth. Expect Moderate to
High activity over the next 3 days. Note there is a low to moderate
chance for X-class flares. The solar wind speed ranged between
340-400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz component ranged
between +/-6 nT. Expect the solar wind speed to remain in this
range until arrival of expected CME (associated with M6.9 class
18/2158UT flare).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 32212212
Cocos Island 3 21111200
Darwin 8 42212212
Townsville 9 42212222
Learmonth 9 42222212
Alice Springs 7 32212212
Norfolk Island 6 22212122
Culgoora 7 32212222
Gingin 6 32212202
Camden 9 33312222
Canberra 5 22212112
Hobart 8 32312212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 12213211
Casey 25 46532223
Mawson 16 44233323
Davis 14 33433322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2122 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 30 Active to Minor Storm
22 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
23 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 19 December
and is current for 21 Dec only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet to Unsettled across the Australian region during the UT
day, 20 December. Antarctic region ranged from Quiet to Minor
Storm. Expect Quiet conditions to prevail until expected arrival
of CME, when activity levels will likely increase to Unsettled
to Minor Storm in the Australian region with isolated periods
of Major storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 134 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 63 was issued
on 19 December and is current for 21-22 Dec. MUFs were near predicted
to enhanced over the UT day 20 December. Isolated cases of sporadic
E were observed in the Australian region. Near monthly predicted
MUFs to slightly enhanced values are expected today, 20 December.
Expect near predicted values with periods of depressed conditions
on 22 December due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 78900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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