[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 20 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0944UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 216/166
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 19 December,
with an M-class flare and several C-class flares occurring from
active region 2242. Note, active region 2241 continues to subflare
in H-alpha. The largest flare over the UT day, 19 December, was
an M1.3 from active region 2242 (S18W29), peaking at 19/0944
UT. LASCO C3 imagery shows yesterday's flare (M6.9 class 18/2158UT)
to have a halo CME and based on Enlil model is expect to arrive
early in the UT day, 21 December. CME occurring on 17 December
has not arrived yet and is expected to hit within the next 12
hours. Expect Moderate to High activity over the next 3 days.
Note there is a low to moderate chance for X-class flares. The
solar wind speed ranged between 350-400 km/s over the last 24
hours. The IMF Bz component ranged between +6/-7 nT. Expect the
solar wind speed to remain in this range until arrival of expected
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 21211223
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 7 21222223
Townsville 9 31212323
Learmonth 6 21222222
Alice Springs 6 21211213
Norfolk Island 5 11111123
Culgoora 5 221112--
Gingin 5 21211212
Camden 7 22211223
Canberra 4 11111212
Hobart 7 22221223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 12231222
Casey 25 55533223
Mawson 21 43433344
Davis 19 34533323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1110 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 20 Active
21 Dec 30 Active to Minor Storm
22 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 19 December
and is current for 21 Dec only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet across the Australian region during the UT day, 19 December.
Antarctic region ranged from Quiet to Minor Storm. Expect Quiet
conditions to prevail until expected arrival of CME, when activity
levels will likely increase to Unsettled to Active levels in
the Australian region with isolated periods of Minor to Major
storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes. Active to Minor
Storm levels are expected to continue on 21 December with the
arrival of a second CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 17
December and is current for 18-20 Dec. IPS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 63 was issued on 19 December and is current for 21-22
Dec. MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day 19
December. Isolated cases of sporadic E were observed in the eastern
Australian regions. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced
values are expected today, 20 December. Expect near predicted
values with periods of depressed conditions on 21-22 December
due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 52200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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