[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 19 10:30:37 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.9 2158UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 213/164
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 225/175 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity was High for the UT day, 18 December,
with an M-class flare and several C-class flares occurring from
active regions 2241 and 2242. The largest flare over the UT day,
18 December, was an M6.9 from active region 2241 (S10E06), peaking
at 18/2158 UT with an associated Type II sweep. No LASCO coronagraph
imagery at this time. CME occurring on 17 December is expected
hit the Earth late in the UT day, 19 December, or early in the
UT day, 20 December, though the majority of the mass is expected
to pass south of Earth. Expect Moderate to High activity over
the next 3 days. Note there is a low to moderate chance for X-class
flares. The solar wind speed ranged between 350-400 km/s over
the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz component ranged between -/+6 nT.
Expect the solar wind speed to remain in this range until arrival
of expected CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22212223
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 6 22211113
Townsville 7 22212223
Learmonth 7 21212223
Alice Springs 6 22211113
Norfolk Island 6 22211222
Culgoora 7 22212223
Gingin 7 21212223
Camden 7 22212223
Canberra 4 11211112
Hobart 7 22212223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 22102112
Casey 25 46433233
Mawson 15 34323224
Davis 15 34423313
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
20 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 18 December
and is current for 19-20 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet across the Australian region during the UT day, 18 December.
Antarctic region ranged from Quiet to Active. Expect Quiet conditions
to prevail until expected arrival of CME, when activity levels
will likely increase to Unsettled to Active levels in the Australian
region with isolated periods of Minor to Major storm levels,
particularly at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 17
December and is current for 18-20 Dec. IPS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 62 was issued on 18 December and is current for 20 Dec
only. MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day 18
December. Isolated cases of sporadic E were observed in the eastern
Australian regions. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced
values are expected today, 19 December. Expect near predicted
values with periods of depressed conditions on 20-21 December
due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 64800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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